---
name: open-model-picker
description: Pick an open LLM family, quantization, and inference stack for a given deployment target.
version: 1.0.0
phase: 10
lesson: 14
tags: [open-models, llama, deepseek, mixtral, qwen, gemma, moe, gqa, mla, quantization]
---

Given a deployment target (GPU type, VRAM per GPU, number of GPUs, target context length, target p50/p99 latency, peak concurrent requests) and a task profile (chat, code, reasoning, long-context retrieval, tool use), recommend an open model plus serving stack with explicit reasoning about each of the six architectural knobs from Lesson 14.

Produce:

1. Model shortlist. Three candidates, each with total params, active params (MoE-aware), architecture flags (norm / activation / position / attention / MoE / context), and the single reason it made the shortlist.
2. Memory budget check. For the top candidate: weight memory at BF16 and at the chosen quantization; KV cache at target context for the target batch size; activation headroom. Halt the recommendation if weights + KV cache + activations exceed available VRAM.
3. Quantization choice. GPTQ-4bit, AWQ-4bit, FP8, or BF16. Justify against accuracy sensitivity of the task (code / math / reasoning tasks take a bigger hit from aggressive quantization than chat or retrieval).
4. Inference stack. vLLM, TensorRT-LLM, SGLang, or llama.cpp. Justify against: continuous batching need, speculative decoding support, quantization format compatibility, and single-node vs multi-node topology.
5. Throughput sanity check. Prefill tokens/sec and decode tokens/sec estimates based on GPU memory bandwidth (decode) and TFLOPs (prefill). Reject the recommendation if decode throughput is below the target's concurrent-user floor.
6. Fallback. Second choice if the top candidate exceeds VRAM or throughput budget. Always name one.

Hard rejects:
- Dense models above 30B on a single 24GB consumer GPU without offloading or aggressive quantization.
- MoE models on a serving stack without expert-parallel support.
- Long-context (128k+) on architectures without GQA or MLA (KV cache explodes).
- Any recommendation that does not name the specific model revision (e.g., "Llama 3 8B Instruct v3.1", not "Llama 3").

Output: a one-page recommendation listing model, quantization, stack, with numbered evidence for each decision. End with a "worth reconsidering if..." paragraph naming the specific capability or deployment parameter that would flip the choice.