2026 dual-use picture: four CBRN domains
bio
2024: mild uplift
2025: 2.53x
ASL-3 approach
acquisition-phase automation
chem
2024: mild
2025: execution gap erodes
vision-enabled real-time correction
GPT-5 x wet-lab: 79x efficiency
cyber
2024: code snippets
2025: 80-90% campaign
Chinese-linked actors, Claude agentic
4-6 human steps remain
nuclear
2024: limited
2025: limited
material access dominates
no 2024-2025 inflection
novice-vs-expert asymmetry
novice-relative uplift
multiplicative; high; input filters help
novice doesn't know what to ask
expert-absolute capability
ceiling high; filters insufficient
unlearning + control required
defender-side development
OpenAI "trusted access" pilot (2025): vetted defenders get capability access for dual-use defensive work.
Council on Strategic Risks 2025 AI x Bio wrapup: year-end synthesis of bio-uplift evidence.
2026 posture: safety cases must target novice-relative AND expert-absolute uplift. three-pillar (monitoring, illegibility, incapability).